Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

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Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

Mastering the Market Cycle: Getting the Odds on Your Side

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Well, here’s the thing: the secular trend also goes through cycles, though they take much longer to play out. Any opinion on the future should be based on: 1) what’s going to happen, and 2) the likelihood of being correct. You can change your choices at any time by visiting Cookie preferences, as described in the Cookie notice.

In investing, the future is a range of possibilities — some known, some unknown — making risk and uncertainty unavoidable. There are three ingredients for success—aggressiveness, timing and skill—and if you have enough aggressiveness at the right time, you don’t need that much skill. His encouragement to set aside emotions, diligently ‘take the temperature’ of the market, and act upon it, is what can set you apart as a successful investor.Every day, countless investors are closely monitoring the media and paying attention to the ups and downs of this or that market. There is no such thing as a market that is separate from—and unaffected by—the people who make it up. Asset Selection: identify asset classes/securities that will be better or worse and weighting — over and under — them based on the required risk level of the portfolio. One of the best books I’ve read on investing and the mindset needed to be successful in the process. If the secular growth rate is always positive, couldn’t you just invest and let your money sit there, allowing the short-term cycles to cancel each other out while you profit from the secular trend’s gradual growth?

Mastering the Market Cycle is his second book, the much-anticipated follow up to The Most Important Thing. Doing this will, obviously enough, increase the chances that your portfolio will gain value in the future. By the end of these blinks, you should have a feel for how they work and, therefore, be that much closer to becoming a superior investor. The risk is completing a project while the economy is headed for recession with a rising supply/shrinking demand in the market.Stages of a Bear Market: 1) when a few people believe things won’t stay better forever, 2) when most people see things are getting worse, 3) when everyone believes things can only get worse. The swings follow a generic pattern of: a) recovery from the lows, b) rise past the midpoint to (extreme) highs, c) the new high, d) downward correction, e) fall past the midpoint to the low, f) the new low, g) recovery from the low, and h) back past the midpoint to another high. For starters, it’s pretty much impossible to predict the distant future with greater accuracy than other investors. Inflation is a result of increasing demand for goods relative to supply, an increase in raw materials and labor costs, and/or when a currency tied to imports declines relative to a currency tied to exports.

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